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What the price-bound guard changes about the measured fill rate

supporting-measurementsupporting

Question

How much of the touch-only fill rate the price-bound guard artifact itself accounts for, versus a real fill.

Verdict

At the touch the correction is ~1%. At 25% placement depth on the BUY side, 17.83% of unguarded fills came from the price-bound artifact alone under the primary VOLUME_CONFIRMED rule, and VOLUME_CONFIRMED carries a HIGHER false-fill share than TOUCH_ONLY at every depth >= 1% ('confirmation concentrates the contamination rather than diluting it').

In plain language (4 terms)

This site's own explanation of the words above. The verdict itself is published exactly as the research index records it and is not rewritten here.

the touch
The best price sitting on the order book right now. It is not the same as the headline price the game shows, which is an average across the orders on that side.
price-bound artifact
A fill the simulation counted only because the recorded price range touched the order's price, with nothing else showing a trade actually happened. It is a measurement error, not a fill.
VOLUME_CONFIRMED
A stricter fill rule that also requires traded volume to back up the price move. Stricter did not turn out to mean more accurate: it was measured carrying a higher share of false fills than the generous rule at every depth tested.
touch_only
A deliberately generous rule for deciding an order filled: it counts a fill whenever the market price reached the order's price at all. Real fills are a subset of these, so a result measured this way is an upper bound on what could have happened, not an estimate of what did.
Population
Tradeable tier, BUY side, VOLUME_CONFIRMED and TOUCH_ONLY fill rules.
Resolution
1d and 2h panels (resolution-dependence addendum, #33).
Cutoff
Development span only.
Baseline
Unguarded fill count (guard off) vs. guarded (BarBookSource's price-bound guard on).

Limitations

Measured only at the touch and at 25% depth on the BUY side; VOLUME_CONFIRMED's higher false-fill share at every depth >=1% is reported without a proposed fix.

Notes

Supports the price-bound guard now standing in BarBookSource; also contains the resolution-dependence addendum (#33): the 2h panel fills more in 11 of 12 measured configurations vs. the daily panel, up to +25.89pp under VOLUME_CONFIRMED at the touch.

Source

Citation
po-research:bound-artifact-fill-impact:a07317b30a52de15
Write-up
docs/research/bound-artifact-fill-impact.md
Artifact
research-index.json v1 — sha256:cb3d976779a5cbcb4188039a8d26d5e558a2d844030a638c2f16fe5a8eb0a2fe
Build data cutoff
2026-08-12
Issues
#23, #33, #34