PatchOracle

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Tradeable cohorts and the patch-event admission rule

supporting-measurementsupporting

Question

Freeze the disjoint cohort partition of the tradeable tier and the fixed per-release list of admitted patch-notice events.

Verdict

Freezes the disjoint cohort partition of the tradeable tier and the fixed per-release list of official-notice events admitted into it. Computes no price aggregate itself (by design -- see analysis/cohorts.py docstring).

In plain language (1 term)

This site's own explanation of the words above. The verdict itself is published exactly as the research index records it and is not rewritten here.

cohort
A group of items fixed in advance, so the grouping cannot be adjusted after the result is seen.
Population
Full tradeable tier, partitioned into cohorts.
Resolution
n/a -- item-cohort partition, not a time-resolution result.
Cutoff
Development span only.
Baseline
n/a -- computes no price aggregate itself (by design); no comparative null applies.

Limitations

Computes no price aggregate; scaffolding consumed by #135's patch-event aggregates, not a hypothesis-test verdict on its own.

Notes

Publication-eligibility scaffolding under ADR-0005's amendments (disjoint, versioned, closed cohorts), consumed by #135's future aggregates -- not indexed here since #135's own artifacts are a separate, concurrently-developing ticket.

Source

Citation
po-research:cohorts:722896e34144aec6
Write-up
docs/research/cohorts.md
Data
docs/research/cohorts.json
Artifact
research-index.json v1 — sha256:cb3d976779a5cbcb4188039a8d26d5e558a2d844030a638c2f16fe5a8eb0a2fe
Build data cutoff
2026-08-12
Issues
#132, #135