PatchOracle

← Research verdicts

Gate A's long-patience capture: drift, or earned spread?

resultgate

Question

Decompose Gate A's long-patience positive capture into drift share vs. genuine per-item residual, graded against ADR-0004's pre-registered criteria.

Verdict

GENUINELY EARNED — 1d: drift share 0.084 is below DRIFT_SHARE_THRESHOLD = 0.5 and the median per-item residual +7.170% is above zero ... ; 2h: drift share -0.062 is below DRIFT_SHARE_THRESHOLD = 0.5 and the median per-item residual +10.819% is above zero ... . Graded against ADR-0004's table, at 7-day patience under touch_only with the artifact guard on, 0bps from the weighted quote reference.

In plain language (6 terms)

This site's own explanation of the words above. The verdict itself is published exactly as the research index records it and is not rewritten here.

drift share
The fraction of a result explained by the whole market moving rather than by the strategy doing anything.
DRIFT_SHARE_THRESHOLD
The cutoff, fixed in advance at 0.5, for how much of a result may come from the whole market drifting rather than from the strategy earning it. Above the cutoff the result is not credited.
residual
What is left of a return once the known costs and effects are subtracted. It describes how the quote was priced and is not earned edge, which is why it no longer decides whether a strategy passes.
touch_only
A deliberately generous rule for deciding an order filled: it counts a fill whenever the market price reached the order's price at all. Real fills are a subset of these, so a result measured this way is an upper bound on what could have happened, not an estimate of what did.
bps
Basis points. One basis point is a hundredth of a percent, so 100 bps is 1 percent.
weighted quote
The headline price Hypixel reports, averaged across the orders on one side of the book rather than taken from the best one. It sits wider than the touch, about 1.8 percentage points at the median, so a spread measured against it overstates the real cost of crossing.
Population
Tradeable tier, 401 items (1d) / 403 items (2h).
Resolution
1d and 2h panels, 7-day patience, touch_only, artifact guard on, 0bps.
Cutoff
Development span only; graded against ADR-0004 criteria fixed before this measurement existed.
Baseline
ADR-0004's pre-registered DRIFT_SHARE_THRESHOLD = 0.5 and median-residual-above-zero criteria.

Limitations

The GENUINELY EARNED grading under ADR-0004 is not re-opened, but ADR-0009 supersedes the completed-cycle residual as the going-forward earned-edge INSTRUMENT -- see this document's own '2026-08-09 additive amendment: residual is not earned edge'.

Notes

Graded correctly against the pre-registered ADR-0004 criteria; that grading is not re-opened. ADR-0009 supersedes only the INSTRUMENT this result's residual is used for going forward (capture per attempted cycle replaces the completed-cycle residual for future earned-edge claims); it does not change this document's verdict. See ADR-0004's and ADR-0009's front-matter (`superseded-by`/`supersedes`, partial, instrument-only).

Source

Citation
po-research:gate-a-drift:8c494b2fb0ddbf8e
Write-up
docs/research/gate-a-drift.md
Data
docs/research/gate-a-drift.json
Artifact
research-index.json v1 — sha256:cb3d976779a5cbcb4188039a8d26d5e558a2d844030a638c2f16fe5a8eb0a2fe
Build data cutoff
2026-08-12
Issues
#55, #62, #63, #84, #89