Gate C: observed vs. elapsed cadence windows (not an expected-value verdict)

operational-statusstrategy

Question

Report v1's observed vs. elapsed forward-run cadence coverage -- explicitly not an expected-value verdict.

Verdict

v1 spoke in 3 of 3 elapsed windows (100.0%; 2 with a complete cohort, 1 torn, 0 deliberately empty, 0 with no record) at an assumed 24h cadence anchored 2:00 UTC, over 2026-08-07 00:45 -> 2026-08-09 02:00 UTC. No outages: every one of the 3 elapsed windows has a record. (measured live at 2026-08-09T22:59:17Z)

In plain language (1 term)

This site's own explanation of the words above. The verdict itself is published exactly as the research index records it and is not rewritten here.

cohort: A group of items fixed in advance, so the grouping cannot be adjusted after the result is seen.

Population: v1 forward-run log only (forward_log/*.ndjson).
Resolution: Daily cadence windows (24h, anchored 02:00 UTC).
Cutoff: Measured live at 2026-08-09T22:59:17Z, over elapsed window 2026-08-07 00:45 -> 2026-08-09 02:00 UTC.
Baseline: n/a -- cadence coverage has no null; it counts elapsed vs. observed windows.

Limitations

No maturity or expected-value claim is made; v1 has no committed `ev` figure yet. v2 has no coverage entry at all -- a NotFrozen version has no pre-registration window.

Notes

NO MATURITY CLAIM IS MADE HERE, deliberately, per issue #130's own acceptance criterion. This is 3 elapsed daily cadence windows since v1 was committed (2026-08-06) -- not a scored expected value. `forward.versions.build_report` requires an externally-supplied `ev` figure for v1 that has not been computed or committed anywhere in this repository as of this index; Gate C therefore has no headline number to report yet, and this entry reports the coverage denominator instead of implying one. v2 has no coverage entry at all -- a NotFrozen version has no pre-registration window (see `v2-not-frozen` above), and offering one would misreport it as having run.

Source

Citation: po-research:gate-c-cadence:e4863cf0a717569d
Write-up: forward/coverage.py, forward/versions.py (no committed docs/research/*.md write-up exists for Gate C as of this index)
Artifact: research-index.json v1 — sha256:cb3d976779a5cbcb4188039a8d26d5e558a2d844030a638c2f16fe5a8eb0a2fe
Build data cutoff: 2026-08-12
Issues: #93, #94, #97, #100, #103, #105