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Item-selection interior real-candidate search

negative-resultstrategy

Question

Determine whether a preregistered item-selection grid produces an eligible real-candidate strategy with an interior optimum.

Verdict

Terminal outcome: `grid_edge_unidentified`. The winning vol_7d / 30-day / top-40 cell had +0.9155% EV per attempted cycle over 6,174 attempts but t=1.552 < 3.33 and sat at both continuous grid boundaries, so it is not a real candidate and does not trigger another search.

In plain language (3 terms)

This site's own explanation of the words above. The verdict itself is published exactly as the research index records it and is not rewritten here.

grid_edge_unidentified
The best setting the search found sat on the outer edge of the range that was searched. That means the edge of the search chose it, not the data. Widen the range and the answer would move, so this is not an answer yet.
vol_7d
A ranking of items by how much they traded over the previous seven days.
attempted cycle
One full attempt at the strategy: place a buy order, wait, and sell if it fills. Attempts that never filled are counted too, so an average per attempted cycle cannot be flattered by dropping the ones that did not work.
Population
353 items qualified at the daily development panel's final as-of date; 40 selected by the winning cell.
Resolution
Daily panel; 24-hour cadence anchored at 02:00 UTC.
Cutoff
Development span through 2026-01-31T00:00:00+00:00; sealed rows were not used.
Baseline
The preregistered 60-cell grid, graded at the ledger-derived Sidak threshold |t| >= 3.33 under volume-confirmed, pessimistic-equivalent execution.

Limitations

The winner was not significant and sat at both continuous grid boundaries; selection and qualification use the panel's final development-span as-of date rather than being recomputed at every historical tick.

Notes

REQUIRED TERMINAL NEGATIVE RESULT. The preregistration is retained separately as a protocol input; this entry publishes the completed #162 result and its declared stopping-rule outcome.

Source

Citation
po-research:item-selection-interior-search:77373608e997b81d
Write-up
docs/research/item-selection-interior-search.md
Data
docs/research/item-selection-interior-search.json, docs/research/item-selection-interior-search-frontier.csv
Artifact
research-index.json v1 — sha256:cb3d976779a5cbcb4188039a8d26d5e558a2d844030a638c2f16fe5a8eb0a2fe
Build data cutoff
2026-08-12
Issues
#49, #127, #162