Tier-A lifecycle watchability and frozen three-day bar baseline

supporting-measurementsupporting

Question

Measure fixed-horizon lifecycle watchability for the frozen recorder cohort and reproduce one frozen legacy bar baseline.

Verdict

3d is first measurable for aggregate watchability (419 complete-lifecycle-eligible placements); the frozen legacy comparator has no economic drift, only receipt-bound touch-only capacity-counter instrumentation drift.

In plain language (1 term)

This site's own explanation of the words above. The verdict itself is published exactly as the research index records it and is not rewritten here.

touch_only: A deliberately generous rule for deciding an order filled: it counts a fill whenever the market price reached the order's price at all. Real fills are a subset of these, so a result measured this way is an upper bound on what could have happened, not an estimate of what did.

Population: 60-item self-collected Tier-A recorder cohort for lifecycle counts; distinct historical 413-tag population for the legacy bar proxy.
Resolution: 2h, 1d and 3d lifecycle accounting; separate 1d and 2h bar-proxy reproduction.
Cutoff: Authorized 233-hour oracle-vm prefix for aggregate lifecycle accounting; legacy comparator uses pre-seal panels only.
Baseline: Historical 3-day, 0bps, guard-on, size-one sequential bar proxy with volume_confirmed primary and touch_only upper bound.

Limitations

Watchability is not fill, P&L, strategy, model, or limit-order evidence; the legacy bar proxy is not queue-aware and uses a distinct static universe.

Notes

No additional notes published for this entry.

Source

Citation: po-research:tier-a-lifecycle-baseline:dd3f21e749b89ca9
Write-up: docs/research/tier-a-lifecycle-baseline.md
Artifact: research-index.json v1 — sha256:cb3d976779a5cbcb4188039a8d26d5e558a2d844030a638c2f16fe5a8eb0a2fe
Build data cutoff: 2026-08-12
Issues: #246